🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-20 17:00:55 · run run_20260720_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
35–51 41% hit rate · n=86 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH25–3542%60+0.38%
MEDIUM10–1638%26-0.00%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 46 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 57 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 10 loosening / 54 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM32–43 (43%, n=75)3–8 (27%, n=11)
Weekly/Monthly level27–36 (43%, n=63)8–15 (35%, n=23)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish Impulse from M30 (755.58)745.38747.01736.1865%40%54
QQQcleanBEARISHHIGHMinute (iii) of Minor 3 Down704.02705.80686.7675%30%54
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Wave (ii) completion377.00368.59385.6985%20%54
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHWave iv of c Correction329.76334.67321.8475%25%54
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from M25 (213.81)204.17207.74197.9770%35%54
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 257.12248.25257.12238.6875%30%54
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Bullish Impulse518.07462.32566.4775%35%54
METAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from M25 (686.08)636.01681.90619.5675%30%54
MSFTcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 405.99395.30405.99378.9165%40%54
GOOGLcleanBULLISHHIGHMinor Wave 3 UP350.75341.36373.7275%30%54

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 54–54 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)