Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 78–126 | 38% | 204 | +0.03% |
| MEDIUM | 29–55 | 35% | 84 | -0.46% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 170 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 208 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 31 loosening / 198 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 95–148 (39%, n=243) | 12–33 (27%, n=45) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 91–137 (40%, n=228) | 16–44 (27%, n=60) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M51 (749.60) | 777.05 | 770.43 | 791.59 | 65% | 35% | 50 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 700.00 | 752.87 | 700.00 | 762.86 | 80% | 30% | 50 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 345.88 | 377.53 | 368.03 | 398.06 | 75% | 25% | 50 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Expanded Flat (Y) from 341.57 | 341.14 | 342.63 | 331.25 | 75% | 25% | 50 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M44 (208.93) | 224.92 | 208.93 | 243.37 | 65% | 45% | 50 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M51 (244.30) | 258.74 | 253.78 | 269.19 | 75% | 30% | 50 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave A of (II) or (IV) | 615.53 | 586.54 | — | 75% | 20% | 50 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M52 (711.68) | 735.90 | 711.68 | 779.82 | 75% | 35% | 50 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (v) of Primary 3 | 537.08 | 518.79 | 553.41 | 85% | 35% | 50 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | BULLISH Impulse from 335.51 | 350.50 | 346.52 | 360.48 | 75% | 35% | 50 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 50–50 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.