Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 20–27 | 43% | 47 | +0.38% |
| MEDIUM | 7–11 | 39% | 18 | -0.00% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 34 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 45 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 9 loosening / 43 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 24–32 (43%, n=56) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 21–29 (42%, n=50) | 6–9 (40%, n=15) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave ii of (iii) UP | 747.54 | 739.51 | 776.06 | 65% | 45% | 49 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (ii) of 3 Up | 718.74 | 700.91 | 751.32 | 80% | 30% | 49 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish correction from D65 (413.16) | 400.56 | 413.16 | 390.03 | 65% | 40% | 49 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of Bullish Impulse | 312.71 | 307.05 | 335.37 | 85% | 20% | 49 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from D42(189.80) | 202.22 | 189.80 | 239.62 | 75% | 30% | 49 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Reversal (Intermediate C down) | 244.23 | 251.03 | 238.85 | 75% | 25% | 49 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Bullish Impulse | 528.34 | 498.15 | 571.09 | 75% | 30% | 49 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M16 (540.18) | 654.20 | 580.10 | 735.50 | 75% | 35% | 49 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 388.08 | 374.09 | 399.08 | 75% | 30% | 49 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Minor Wave 2 DOWN | 349.87 | 330.20 | 373.16 | 75% | 35% | 49 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 49–49 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.