Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 79–135 | 37% | 214 | -0.03% |
| MEDIUM | 30–59 | 34% | 89 | -0.46% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 176 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 221 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 33 loosening / 211 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 96–160 (38%, n=256) | 13–34 (28%, n=47) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 93–150 (38%, n=243) | 16–44 (27%, n=60) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M61 (781.62) | 766.14 | 773.25 | 757.97 | 75% | 20% | 54 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Zigzag Correction | 714.48 | 729.43 | — | 75% | 30% | 54 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from D101 (345.88) | 359.13 | 345.88 | 424.62 | 60% | 40% | 54 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from 347.85 | 344.27 | 347.85 | 335.60 | 65% | 40% | 54 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | BEARISH Impulse from D89 (243.37) | 226.88 | 243.37 | 173.05 | 65% | 40% | 54 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from M60 | 252.90 | 255.60 | 229.05 | 60% | 40% | 54 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M52 | 535.52 | 568.62 | 467.00 | 85% | 30% | 54 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Wave C of (ii)/(iv) Flat | 713.45 | 771.27 | — | 80% | 40% | 54 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 487.23 | 524.50 | 487.23 | 551.15 | 85% | 30% | 54 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave (ii) of Primary 1 | 339.00 | 335.51 | 381.22 | 65% | 35% | 54 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 54–54 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.