Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 19–25 | 43% | 44 | +0.44% |
| MEDIUM | 7–8 | 47% | 15 | +0.16% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 30 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 37 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 8 loosening / 35 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 23–27 (46%, n=50) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 20–24 (45%, n=44) | 6–9 (40%, n=15) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | BULLISH Impulse: Wave (III) UP | 749.23 | 739.51 | 762.73 | 80% | 20% | 47 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 700.91 | 715.12 | 700.91 | 728.62 | 65% | 40% | 47 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 398.04 | 390.51 | 415.00 | 65% | 45% | 47 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 314.23 | 308.16 | 321.57 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from D41(213.99) | 198.97 | 205.16 | 189.84 | 65% | 35% | 47 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 244.31 | 239.30 | 262.68 | 65% | 35% | 47 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Bullish Impulse | 523.22 | 498.15 | 631.42 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of a larger bullish impulse. | 616.31 | 580.10 | 641.81 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 381.24 | 349.20 | 456.95 | 75% | 40% | 47 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Minor Wave 2 DOWN | 363.13 | 351.08 | 363.13 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 47–47 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.