Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 25–38 | 40% | 63 | +0.31% |
| MEDIUM | 10–17 | 37% | 27 | -0.03% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 47 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 58 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 11 loosening / 55 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 32–47 (41%, n=79) | 3–8 (27%, n=11) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 27–40 (40%, n=67) | 8–15 (35%, n=23) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | BULLISH Impulse from M31 (740.80) | 744.34 | 741.51 | 749.79 | 80% | 30% | 55 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave b of (iii) Up | 695.51 | 726.39 | 673.37 | 80% | 20% | 55 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (v) of bullish impulse | 376.70 | 368.60 | 389.94 | 75% | 30% | 55 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Minute Wave b of iii | 325.15 | 329.60 | 315.81 | 70% | 30% | 55 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from D49 (213.81) | 207.82 | 213.82 | 202.75 | 70% | 35% | 55 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from 257.12 | 248.82 | 252.89 | 238.61 | 70% | 30% | 55 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 532.90 | 462.32 | 566.45 | 70% | 40% | 55 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from 686.08 | 653.56 | 686.08 | 581.13 | 70% | 40% | 55 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from 405.99 | 395.34 | 405.99 | 378.89 | 70% | 40% | 55 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Intermediate Wave (4) Correction | 349.90 | 359.68 | 326.12 | 75% | 30% | 55 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 55–55 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.