Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 26–39 | 40% | 65 | +0.25% |
| MEDIUM | 10–17 | 37% | 27 | -0.03% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 51 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 59 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 11 loosening / 56 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 33–48 (41%, n=81) | 3–8 (27%, n=11) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 28–41 (41%, n=69) | 8–15 (35%, n=23) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M29 (739.51) | 747.18 | 740.80 | 753.62 | 85% | 20% | 56 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave v of (C) Down | 703.64 | 710.05 | 690.24 | 75% | 20% | 56 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 372.90 | 368.60 | 389.89 | 75% | 30% | 56 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse (Wave A or C) | 326.91 | 329.60 | 315.96 | 65% | 35% | 56 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Zigzag (Wave C) | 209.38 | 204.01 | 217.59 | 75% | 30% | 56 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (ii) UP | 247.07 | 225.55 | 257.12 | 80% | 30% | 56 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 517.45 | 460.21 | — | 75% | 35% | 56 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 2 of (III) | 644.60 | 540.18 | 769.90 | 85% | 20% | 56 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Double Zigzag Completion | 388.72 | 386.97 | 393.92 | 65% | 35% | 56 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | BULLISH | 346.19 | 341.35 | 373.66 | 75% | 30% | 56 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 56–56 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.