🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-09 17:00:55 · run run_20260709_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
26–33 44% hit rate · n=59 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH19–2543%44+0.44%
MEDIUM7–847%15+0.16%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 30 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 37 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 8 loosening / 35 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM23–27 (46%, n=50)3–6 (33%, n=9)
Weekly/Monthly level20–24 (45%, n=44)6–9 (40%, n=15)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHHIGHBULLISH Impulse: Wave (III) UP749.23739.51762.7380%20%47
QQQcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 700.91715.12700.91728.6265%40%47
TSLAcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish impulse from M21 (368.60)398.04390.51415.0065%45%47
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse314.23308.16321.5775%30%47
NVDAcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish impulse from D41(213.99)198.97205.16189.8465%35%47
AMZNcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse244.31239.30262.6865%35%47
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Bullish Impulse523.22498.15631.4275%30%47
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (iii) of a larger bullish impulse.616.31580.10641.8175%30%47
MSFTcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 349.20381.24349.20456.9575%40%47
GOOGLcleanBULLISHHIGHMinor Wave 2 DOWN363.13351.08363.1375%30%47

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 47–47 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)