🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-13 17:00:55 · run run_20260713_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
27–38 42% hit rate · n=65 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH20–2743%47+0.38%
MEDIUM7–1139%18-0.00%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 34 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 45 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 9 loosening / 43 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM24–32 (43%, n=56)3–6 (33%, n=9)
Weekly/Monthly level21–29 (42%, n=50)6–9 (40%, n=15)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMWave ii of (iii) UP747.54739.51776.0665%45%49
QQQcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (ii) of 3 Up718.74700.91751.3280%30%49
TSLAcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish correction from D65 (413.16)400.56413.16390.0365%40%49
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (iii) of Bullish Impulse312.71307.05335.3785%20%49
NVDAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from D42(189.80)202.22189.80239.6275%30%49
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Reversal (Intermediate C down)244.23251.03238.8575%25%49
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Bullish Impulse528.34498.15571.0975%30%49
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from M16 (540.18)654.20580.10735.5075%35%49
MSFTcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse388.08374.09399.0875%30%49
GOOGLcleanBULLISHMEDIUMMinor Wave 2 DOWN349.87330.20373.1675%35%49

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 49–49 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)