Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 17–20 | 46% | 37 | +0.49% |
| MEDIUM | 5–7 | 42% | 12 | +0.15% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 24 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 32 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 7 loosening / 30 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 19–21 (48%, n=40) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 18–19 (49%, n=37) | 4–8 (33%, n=12) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave (iii) UP | 747.28 | 740.03 | 779.84 | 70% | 30% | 44 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave iii of (iii) down | 715.03 | 726.08 | 704.13 | 75% | 20% | 44 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 408.91 | 389.30 | 432.86 | 65% | 35% | 44 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Cycle Wave III Bullish Impulse | 302.11 | 273.75 | — | 85% | 20% | 44 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M18(213.99) | 197.55 | 200.41 | 189.54 | 70% | 30% | 44 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 225.55 | 242.85 | 235.17 | 252.43 | 65% | 40% | 44 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) DOWN | 558.95 | 584.73 | 498.05 | 75% | 30% | 44 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 591.62 | 581.50 | 608.06 | 75% | 25% | 44 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 376.22 | 349.20 | 401.06 | 75% | 30% | 44 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Minor Wave 5 UP | 363.70 | 353.42 | 375.51 | 70% | 40% | 44 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 44–44 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.