🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-08-03 17:00:55 · run run_20260803_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
47–81 37% hit rate · n=128 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH35–6037%95+0.18%
MEDIUM12–2136%33-0.32%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 63 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 80 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 76 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM39–66 (37%, n=105)8–15 (35%, n=23)
Weekly/Monthly level38–57 (40%, n=95)9–24 (27%, n=33)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from D67 (729.10)750.70729.10768.0275%30%44
QQQcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 661.14 (M33)685.88661.14710.2665%40%44
TSLAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from M23338.21413.16184.0780%20%44
AAPLcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish Impulse302.56310.70294.3965%35%44
NVDAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from 190.01; Wave (i) complete at 208.74.199.38190.0180%40%44
AMZNcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 226.16274.80234.78295.4075%20%44
AMDcleanBULLISHMEDIUMPrimary Bullish Impulse477.16424.03504.1265%40%44
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from M28 (527.35)583.89582.64626.1270%20%44
MSFTcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse460.00450.6975%20%44
GOOGLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 314.90367.37348.39398.2680%25%44

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 44–44 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)