🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-17 17:00:55 · run run_20260717_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
34–48 41% hit rate · n=82 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH25–3244%57+0.47%
MEDIUM9–1636%25-0.17%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 45 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 53 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 10 loosening / 51 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM31–40 (44%, n=71)3–8 (27%, n=11)
Weekly/Monthly level26–34 (43%, n=60)8–14 (36%, n=22)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from M30747.27755.58736.0675%25%53
QQQcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 726.39702.30718.59682.4975%20%53
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from T95 (377.22)380.58377.22395.0975%25%53
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse329.16311.91352.2385%20%53
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from D49 (213.81)202.61206.65190.8170%30%53
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 257.12248.12250.24241.5175%30%53
AMDcleanBULLISHMEDIUMPrimary Bullish Impulse484.10462.32516.6065%40%53
METAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from 686.08 (Wave A or C of larger correction)652.20681.90620.4775%25%53
MSFTcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 405.99395.97405.99366.6970%35%53
GOOGLcleanBEARISHHIGHMinor Wave 2 UP356.74374.92335.8480%20%53

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 53–53 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)