🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-24 17:00:55 · run run_20260724_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
37–65 36% hit rate · n=102 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH27–4637%73+0.15%
MEDIUM10–1934%29-0.14%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 54 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 65 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 14 loosening / 62 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM34–56 (38%, n=90)3–9 (25%, n=12)
Weekly/Monthly level29–48 (38%, n=77)8–17 (32%, n=25)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from M34 (735.21)737.22735.21753.8780%20%58
QQQcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse (Wave C) from 724.36687.79692.63672.4575%20%58
TSLAcleanBEARISHHIGHPrimary Wave C314.73322.96299.0680%20%58
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (v) of Bullish Impulse328.57319.35342.7475%30%58
NVDAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from M22 (191.14)204.81191.14245.8270%30%58
AMZNcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 225.55235.15231.34245.1860%40%58
AMDcleanBULLISHMEDIUMPrimary Bullish Impulse511.90462.32580.0075%40%58
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Wave (ii) correction completing at 594.60609.98580.10686.0880%20%58
MSFTcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 405.99377.95386.60360.8165%35%58
GOOGLcleanBEARISHMEDIUMIntermediate Wave A down324.18359.68299.8765%30%58

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 58–58 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)