🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-16 17:00:55 · run run_20260716_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
32–45 42% hit rate · n=77 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH24–3144%55+0.49%
MEDIUM8–1436%22-0.14%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 43 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 52 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 10 loosening / 50 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM29–37 (44%, n=66)3–8 (27%, n=11)
Weekly/Monthly level24–32 (43%, n=56)8–13 (38%, n=21)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBEARISHMEDIUMWave (i) DOWN751.86755.58743.2970%40%52
QQQcleanBULLISHMEDIUMWave (ii) of 3 or C713.07700.91725.4760%35%52
TSLAcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish impulse from M21 (368.60)386.86385.32400.4865%35%52
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse329.31311.91352.0885%25%52
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Zigzag (Wave A)203.80212.57203.9775%40%52
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHIntermediate Wave (C) down251.33257.12238.8575%35%52
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHDouble Zigzag (W-X-Y) correction complete at 491.80517.82491.79540.1380%20%52
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from M16 (540.18)645.59580.10687.2380%25%52
MSFTcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 349.20393.83378.65425.0065%40%52
GOOGLcleanNEUTRALHIGHWave A of (ii) DOWN360.89335.8485%20%52

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 52–52 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)