🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-21 17:00:55 · run run_20260721_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
35–55 39% hit rate · n=90 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH25–3840%63+0.31%
MEDIUM10–1737%27-0.03%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 47 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 58 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 11 loosening / 55 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM32–47 (41%, n=79)3–8 (27%, n=11)
Weekly/Monthly level27–40 (40%, n=67)8–15 (35%, n=23)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHHIGHBULLISH Impulse from M31 (740.80)744.34741.51749.7980%30%55
QQQcleanBEARISHHIGHWave b of (iii) Up695.51726.39673.3780%20%55
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (v) of bullish impulse376.70368.60389.9475%30%55
AAPLcleanBEARISHHIGHMinute Wave b of iii325.15329.60315.8170%30%55
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from D49 (213.81)207.82213.82202.7570%35%55
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 257.12248.82252.89238.6170%30%55
AMDcleanBULLISHMEDIUMPrimary Bullish Impulse532.90462.32566.4570%40%55
METAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from 686.08653.56686.08581.1370%40%55
MSFTcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish Impulse from 405.99395.34405.99378.8970%40%55
GOOGLcleanBEARISHMEDIUMIntermediate Wave (4) Correction349.90359.68326.1275%30%55

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 55–55 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)