Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 29–55 | 35% | 84 | +0.20% |
| MEDIUM | 11–20 | 35% | 31 | -0.09% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 60 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 71 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 68 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 35–62 (36%, n=97) | 5–13 (28%, n=18) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 32–54 (37%, n=86) | 8–21 (28%, n=29) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Double Zigzag (W-X-Y) from D58 (755.58) | 735.21 | 745.53 | — | 80% | 30% | 61 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from 726.39 (M28) | 670.00 | 680.05 | 640.15 | 85% | 15% | 61 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Primary 3 | 304.70 | 307.99 | 291.33 | 70% | 20% | 61 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 336.01 | 319.35 | 361.23 | 75% | 25% | 61 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M10 (232.01) | 196.33 | 198.70 | 184.48 | 75% | 20% | 61 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Wave (ii) Zigzag | 232.82 | 225.54 | 238.18 | 65% | 35% | 61 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (A-B-C) | 453.23 | 465.81 | 420.80 | 70% | 30% | 61 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iv) of Bullish Impulse | 599.97 | 551.43 | — | 75% | 30% | 61 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 389.41 | 377.39 | 422.33 | 75% | 30% | 61 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (3) UP | 331.76 | 314.90 | 359.16 | 75% | 30% | 61 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 61–61 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.