Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 31–58 | 35% | 89 | +0.18% |
| MEDIUM | 11–20 | 35% | 31 | -0.09% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 62 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 72 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 69 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 37–63 (37%, n=100) | 5–15 (25%, n=20) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 33–54 (38%, n=87) | 9–24 (27%, n=33) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M36 (729.10) | 734.94 | 729.10 | 750.77 | 65% | 30% | 62 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Wave 5 | 675.20 | 661.14 | 710.32 | 75% | 30% | 62 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from M28 (413.16) | 303.51 | 413.16 | 297.38 | 80% | 40% | 62 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Wave 3 | 328.94 | 319.35 | 347.70 | 80% | 40% | 62 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from T138 (190.01) | 193.70 | 190.01 | 204.40 | 75% | 20% | 62 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from 257.12 | 239.97 | 257.12 | 223.86 | 75% | 30% | 62 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 469.56 | 424.03 | 561.85 | 65% | 40% | 62 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M25 (686.08) | 542.34 | 599.97 | 521.55 | 75% | 20% | 62 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 374.09 | 439.51 | 388.74 | 466.32 | 85% | 30% | 62 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (A-B-C) from 359.68 | 335.33 | 342.50 | 313.88 | 75% | 30% | 62 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 62–62 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.