Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 78–128 | 38% | 206 | +0.03% |
| MEDIUM | 29–55 | 35% | 84 | -0.46% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 171 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 212 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 31 loosening / 202 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 95–150 (39%, n=245) | 12–33 (27%, n=45) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 91–139 (40%, n=230) | 16–44 (27%, n=60) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M62 | 776.57 | 770.43 | 783.22 | 60% | 40% | 51 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 700.00 | 741.16 | 731.63 | 745.65 | 75% | 30% | 51 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Zigzag from D106 (388.56) | 380.81 | 388.56 | 360.00 | 70% | 40% | 51 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (5) | 340.29 | 330.70 | 358.50 | 80% | 25% | 51 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 226.78 | 221.09 | 230.00 | 75% | 30% | 51 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Minor Wave 4 | 253.93 | 244.72 | — | 80% | 20% | 51 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from M52 | 624.33 | 658.52 | 579.61 | 65% | 40% | 51 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M52 (711.68) | 761.62 | 734.84 | 787.49 | 80% | 30% | 51 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 491.22 | 543.06 | 538.61 | 552.26 | 75% | 20% | 51 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 335.51 | 352.94 | 346.52 | 365.00 | 65% | 40% | 51 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 51–51 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.