Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 20–26 | 43% | 46 | +0.45% |
| MEDIUM | 7–9 | 44% | 16 | +0.08% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 31 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 42 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 9 loosening / 40 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 24–29 (45%, n=53) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 21–26 (45%, n=47) | 6–9 (40%, n=15) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M29 (739.51) | 751.38 | 750.43 | 756.22 | 65% | 35% | 48 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave (iii) of Primary 3 or C Up | 724.34 | 720.58 | 737.62 | 65% | 35% | 48 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Wave C from M27 (390.51) | 404.07 | 390.51 | 426.65 | 70% | 35% | 48 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse (Primary 5) | 312.69 | 307.05 | 330.08 | 75% | 30% | 48 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M19(189.80) | 204.68 | 198.96 | — | 80% | 35% | 48 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 225.55 | 243.31 | 239.30 | 262.96 | 70% | 35% | 48 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 5 UP | 542.97 | 542.77 | 584.73 | 75% | 20% | 48 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 580.10 | 620.45 | 580.10 | 792.10 | 75% | 30% | 48 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 381.50 | 374.09 | 411.33 | 65% | 35% | 48 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave C DOWN | 360.55 | 373.16 | 345.00 | 85% | 35% | 48 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 48–48 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.