Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 79–130 | 38% | 209 | +0.01% |
| MEDIUM | 30–57 | 34% | 87 | -0.43% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 175 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 219 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 31 loosening / 209 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 96–153 (39%, n=249) | 13–34 (28%, n=47) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 93–143 (39%, n=236) | 16–44 (27%, n=60) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M64 (764.43) | 769.17 | 764.43 | 778.70 | 75% | 30% | 53 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 715.43 | 723.25 | 715.43 | 745.41 | 65% | 40% | 53 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Expanded Flat C-Wave | 368.60 | 388.56 | 331.97 | 75% | 30% | 53 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Completed Wave (5) at 347.85 | 343.29 | 347.85 | 325.81 | 75% | 40% | 53 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave B of larger Zigzag | 212.85 | 221.68 | 208.71 | 75% | 30% | 53 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M61 (248.65) | 253.27 | 248.64 | 259.08 | 75% | 35% | 53 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M56 | 545.45 | 532.26 | 586.15 | 75% | 30% | 53 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M52 (711.68) | 732.66 | 724.66 | 746.76 | 65% | 40% | 53 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 491.22 | 538.61 | 531.22 | 554.11 | 75% | 30% | 53 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 335.51 | 346.86 | 335.51 | 389.00 | 65% | 35% | 53 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 53–53 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.