Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 76–125 | 38% | 201 | +0.02% |
| MEDIUM | 28–55 | 34% | 83 | -0.49% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 169 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 204 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 30 loosening / 194 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 92–147 (38%, n=239) | 12–33 (27%, n=45) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 89–136 (40%, n=225) | 15–44 (25%, n=59) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M51 | 770.43 | 766.15 | 791.36 | 70% | 35% | 49 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 699.29 | 748.62 | 743.23 | 757.90 | 70% | 30% | 49 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from D105 (368.03) | 379.71 | 368.03 | 400.24 | 65% | 40% | 49 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse | 331.90 | 325.81 | 358.50 | 70% | 35% | 49 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave A of larger Zigzag | 233.57 | 243.37 | 226.93 | 75% | 35% | 49 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M53 (244.72) | 259.66 | 253.78 | 280.96 | 75% | 25% | 49 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Minor Wave 4 | 625.89 | 658.52 | 596.07 | 85% | 20% | 49 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from T299 (711.68) | 715.90 | 711.68 | 735.20 | 65% | 40% | 49 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 487.23 | 526.24 | 502.22 | — | 75% | 25% | 49 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 335.51 | 350.75 | 346.52 | 365.18 | 75% | 25% | 49 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 49–49 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.