Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 18–22 | 45% | 40 | +0.47% |
| MEDIUM | 6–8 | 43% | 14 | +0.08% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 28 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 35 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 8 loosening / 33 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 21–24 (47%, n=45) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 19–22 (46%, n=41) | 5–8 (38%, n=13) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from D55/M28 (752.41) | 747.07 | 752.41 | 726.86 | 65% | 40% | 46 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (i) of 3 or C up | 707.88 | 700.91 | 726.74 | 75% | 30% | 46 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 404.22 | 368.60 | 432.86 | 65% | 35% | 46 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Wave 3 | 310.15 | 307.05 | 321.00 | 75% | 30% | 46 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M19(189.80) | 201.85 | 196.05 | 208.57 | 75% | 35% | 46 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Wave (B) down from 248.93 | 242.74 | 244.18 | 236.81 | 65% | 40% | 46 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iv) complete, Wave (v) beginning | 522.98 | 498.04 | 550.85 | 85% | 15% | 46 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave c of B | 605.45 | 607.75 | 594.97 | 65% | 40% | 46 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse | 381.33 | 349.20 | 431.00 | 65% | 35% | 46 |
| GOOGL | OFFLINE | NEUTRAL | LOW | N/A | 372.78 | 351.06 | — | — | — | 46 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 46–46 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.