Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 36–61 | 37% | 97 | +0.18% |
| MEDIUM | 14–21 | 40% | 35 | -0.15% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 63 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 80 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 76 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 41–67 (38%, n=108) | 9–15 (38%, n=24) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 40–58 (41%, n=98) | 10–24 (29%, n=34) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 729.10 | 759.77 | 746.34 | — | 85% | 15% | 45 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Flat Correction (FA-FB-FC) | 695.77 | 737.62 | 660.40 | 75% | 30% | 45 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from M23 | 325.05 | 413.16 | 276.48 | 75% | 30% | 45 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse | 300.00 | 344.57 | 273.75 | 70% | 30% | 45 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M31 (190.01) | 211.04 | 209.05 | 213.85 | 75% | 35% | 45 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 226.16 | 263.89 | 226.16 | 320.00 | 75% | 35% | 45 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 498.08 | 456.12 | 596.67 | 65% | 40% | 45 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Wave C from M25 (686.08) | 626.12 | 655.88 | 449.06 | 65% | 30% | 45 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 377.39 | 483.96 | 450.69 | — | 75% | 15% | 45 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 367.48 | 348.39 | 395.08 | 75% | 25% | 45 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 45–45 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.