Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 8–5 | 62% | 13 | +0.73% |
| MEDIUM | 2–5 | 29% | 7 | -0.45% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 11 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 18 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 1 loosening / 16 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 8–8 (50%, n=16) | 2–2 (50%, n=4) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 8–8 (50%, n=16) | 2–2 (50%, n=4) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Wave C | 734.25 | 736.06 | 720.34 | 70% | 25% | 59 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 711.23 | 704.45 | 722.15 | 75% | 30% | 59 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M19 (414.75) | 389.47 | 414.75 | — | 75% | 20% | 59 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave C of (II) DOWN | 277.45 | 280.22 | 271.80 | 85% | 15% | 59 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Minor Wave 3 down | 197.10 | 213.99 | 168.05 | 85% | 20% | 59 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Wave (v) down from 242.42 | 227.20 | 230.45 | 220.34 | 80% | 20% | 59 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 3 (or C) of higher degree, following an Expanded Flat Wave 2/B. | 519.74 | 503.50 | 557.00 | 80% | 20% | 59 |
| META | OFFLINE | NEUTRAL | LOW | N/A | 559.16 | 526.58 | — | — | — | 59 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of 3 | 357.78 | 378.88 | 317.71 | 75% | 30% | 59 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (5) of Primary Wave A complete at 335.84; Primary Wave B rally beginning. | 339.59 | 335.84 | 353.48 | 70% | 30% | 59 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 59–59 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.