🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-15 17:00:55 · run run_20260715_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
30–41 42% hit rate · n=71 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH22–2844%50+0.46%
MEDIUM8–1338%21-0.12%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 40 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 52 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 10 loosening / 50 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM27–34 (44%, n=61)3–7 (30%, n=10)
Weekly/Monthly level24–30 (44%, n=54)6–11 (35%, n=17)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from M29 (739.51)753.05750.20760.4165%35%51
QQQcleanBEARISHHIGHWave (iii) of Minor C Down720.29726.39692.4575%35%51
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from M27 (390.51)394.00390.51430.6175%30%51
AAPLcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse318.31311.91399.5875%30%51
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish impulse from D45 (211.00)212.67213.82206.0475%35%51
AMZNcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 225.55246.10239.30276.4080%35%51
AMDcleanBEARISHHIGHPrimary Bearish Impulse532.51556.30508.5975%30%51
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHWave v of c of (iii)676.36673.37710.4075%20%51
MSFTcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Zigzag (Wave B complete, Wave C down)389.13398.96378.6570%40%51
GOOGLcleanBULLISHMEDIUMWave b of (iii) DOWN359.70351.08382.2760%40%51

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 51–51 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)