Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 27–43 | 39% | 70 | +0.19% |
| MEDIUM | 10–18 | 36% | 28 | -0.06% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 52 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 62 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 12 loosening / 59 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 34–53 (39%, n=87) | 3–8 (27%, n=11) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 29–46 (39%, n=75) | 8–15 (35%, n=23) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M30 | 738.19 | 739.72 | 731.72 | 75% | 20% | 57 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (v) of C Down | 701.03 | 710.05 | 678.78 | 75% | 30% | 57 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M28 (413.16) | 326.34 | 380.17 | 288.26 | 75% | 30% | 57 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse (Wave C) | 323.41 | 329.60 | 311.46 | 70% | 40% | 57 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M27 (197.97) | 206.16 | 197.97 | 226.93 | 75% | 30% | 57 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (A-B-C) from 258.08 | 235.15 | 245.18 | 229.45 | 75% | 30% | 57 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 504.96 | 460.21 | 566.06 | 65% | 35% | 57 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M16 (540.18) | 619.51 | 580.10 | 670.17 | 80% | 20% | 57 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 379.43 | 349.20 | 390.96 | 75% | 25% | 57 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (A-B-C) from 375.27 | 321.55 | 349.94 | 304.45 | 75% | 25% | 57 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 57–57 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.