Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 15–15 | 50% | 30 | +0.69% |
| MEDIUM | 2–6 | 25% | 8 | -0.40% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 17 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 24 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 6 loosening / 22 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 15–15 (50%, n=30) | 2–6 (25%, n=8) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 13–15 (46%, n=28) | 4–6 (40%, n=10) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of III UP | 742.93 | 732.09 | 756.22 | 75% | 30% | 41 ⚠️ |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse (Wave 5) | 729.94 | 705.17 | 746.66 | 85% | 20% | 41 ⚠️ |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse (Wave A) from M21 (368.60) | 416.00 | 378.55 | — | 85% | 40% | 41 ⚠️ |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 286.68 | 279.85 | 294.91 | 75% | 30% | 41 ⚠️ |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M19(189.80) | 198.10 | 189.80 | 204.19 | 75% | 25% | 41 ⚠️ |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse | 237.20 | 225.55 | 245.81 | 70% | 30% | 41 ⚠️ |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 3 of (III) | 535.08 | 498.05 | 618.14 | 85% | 30% | 41 ⚠️ |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 551.43 | 540.18 | 605.71 | 75% | 30% | 41 ⚠️ |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse | 376.67 | 380.50 | 352.54 | 75% | 35% | 41 ⚠️ |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (i) up | 347.77 | 330.20 | 393.64 | 85% | 20% | 41 ⚠️ |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 41–41 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42). Thin history: higher-degree counts are provisional; an AlphaVantage 1-min archive deepens them. This is disclosed, not a defect.
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.