Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 27–51 | 35% | 78 | +0.13% |
| MEDIUM | 10–20 | 33% | 30 | -0.15% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 56 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 66 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 16 loosening / 63 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 34–59 (37%, n=93) | 3–12 (20%, n=15) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 29–50 (37%, n=79) | 8–21 (28%, n=29) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M34 (735.21) | 735.87 | 735.21 | 754.12 | 65% | 40% | 59 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (v) of C Down | 682.34 | 692.26 | 670.42 | 60% | 40% | 59 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M23 (432.86) | 326.36 | 380.17 | 284.16 | 80% | 35% | 59 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 323.48 | 311.91 | — | 85% | 20% | 59 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from D51/M30 (214.39) | 202.72 | 211.91 | 190.00 | 75% | 35% | 59 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave C down | 239.35 | 252.89 | 200.72 | 75% | 30% | 59 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Primary Bearish Impulse (Wave C) | 502.41 | 540.70 | 458.36 | 85% | 20% | 59 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iv) of Bullish Impulse | 591.76 | 551.43 | 686.08 | 85% | 25% | 59 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag from 405.99 | 391.50 | 406.00 | 365.60 | 75% | 30% | 59 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (1) UP | 323.80 | 314.90 | 350.92 | 75% | 35% | 59 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 59–59 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.