Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 12–14 | 46% | 26 | +0.47% |
| MEDIUM | 2–6 | 25% | 8 | -0.40% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 15 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 22 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 5 loosening / 20 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 12–14 (46%, n=26) | 2–6 (25%, n=8) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 11–14 (44%, n=25) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave V of (III) UP | 736.06 | 726.86 | 751.02 | 65% | 35% | 61 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 718.85 | 705.17 | 733.13 | 75% | 40% | 61 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 400.00 | 378.55 | 423.00 | 75% | 30% | 61 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave III UP | 279.85 | 275.25 | 288.81 | 85% | 25% | 61 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from D41(213.99) | 199.81 | 213.99 | 184.50 | 70% | 30% | 61 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 238.49 | 225.55 | 250.32 | 75% | 25% | 61 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) UP | 524.35 | 498.05 | 559.20 | 80% | 30% | 61 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 560.61 | 548.97 | 575.97 | 80% | 25% | 61 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 366.02 | 351.64 | 382.48 | 75% | 35% | 61 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Primary Wave 5 UP | 351.82 | 335.84 | 358.66 | 80% | 30% | 61 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 61–61 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.