Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 24–31 | 44% | 55 | +0.49% |
| MEDIUM | 8–14 | 36% | 22 | -0.14% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 43 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 52 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 10 loosening / 50 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 29–37 (44%, n=66) | 3–8 (27%, n=11) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 24–32 (43%, n=56) | 8–13 (38%, n=21) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (i) DOWN | 751.86 | 755.58 | 743.29 | 70% | 40% | 52 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave (ii) of 3 or C | 713.07 | 700.91 | 725.47 | 60% | 35% | 52 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 386.86 | 385.32 | 400.48 | 65% | 35% | 52 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 329.31 | 311.91 | 352.08 | 85% | 25% | 52 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (Wave A) | 203.80 | 212.57 | 203.97 | 75% | 40% | 52 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (C) down | 251.33 | 257.12 | 238.85 | 75% | 35% | 52 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Double Zigzag (W-X-Y) correction complete at 491.80 | 517.82 | 491.79 | 540.13 | 80% | 20% | 52 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M16 (540.18) | 645.59 | 580.10 | 687.23 | 80% | 25% | 52 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 349.20 | 393.83 | 378.65 | 425.00 | 65% | 40% | 52 |
| GOOGL | clean | NEUTRAL | HIGH | Wave A of (ii) DOWN | 360.89 | 335.84 | — | 85% | 20% | 52 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 52–52 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.