Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 4–2 | 67% | 6 | +0.97% |
| MEDIUM | 2–2 | 50% | 4 | +0.94% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 6 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 9 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 0 loosening / 8 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 5–4 (56%, n=9) | 1–0 (100%, n=1) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 4–4 (50%, n=8) | 2–0 (100%, n=2) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (v) of C DOWN | 747.46 | 758.45 | 738.54 | 75% | 35% | 56 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse | 738.27 | 748.65 | 726.29 | 85% | 25% | 56 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from D50 (384.70) | 403.11 | 384.70 | 415.07 | 70% | 35% | 56 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (iii) of C (Bearish) | 298.39 | 302.42 | 294.52 | 75% | 35% | 56 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from D35(199.34), currently starting Wave (iii) up. | 204.94 | 199.34 | 213.99 | 75% | 35% | 56 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) DOWN | 239.19 | 245.73 | 205.53 | 75% | 20% | 56 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave i of C UP | 536.79 | 507.25 | — | 85% | 20% | 56 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) down | 568.27 | 580.22 | 504.88 | 75% | 30% | 56 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse | 370.48 | 381.63 | 353.16 | 80% | 20% | 56 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) down | 350.96 | 369.48 | 331.78 | 75% | 30% | 56 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 56–56 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.