Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 38–62 | 38% | 100 | +0.17% |
| MEDIUM | 14–22 | 39% | 36 | -0.21% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 68 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 86 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 82 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 43–68 (39%, n=111) | 9–16 (36%, n=25) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 41–59 (41%, n=100) | 11–25 (31%, n=36) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M36 (729.10) | 757.09 | 729.10 | 790.00 | 65% | 35% | 48 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 661.14 (M33) | 719.05 | 708.50 | 723.32 | 75% | 35% | 48 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from D57 (432.86) | 324.63 | 413.16 | 347.71 | 75% | 35% | 48 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse | 314.81 | 316.29 | 302.36 | 80% | 30% | 48 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M31 (190.01) | 218.55 | 190.01 | — | 85% | 20% | 48 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (ii) Correction | 270.73 | 278.31 | 252.88 | 70% | 30% | 48 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 475.65 | 424.03 | 530.13 | 65% | 40% | 48 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Wave (ii) from M28 (527.35) | 588.75 | 686.08 | 584.61 | 75% | 40% | 48 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 377.39 | 493.50 | 485.68 | 515.00 | 75% | 25% | 48 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 342.36 | 330.34 | 405.00 | 75% | 30% | 48 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 48–48 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.