Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 78–130 | 38% | 208 | +0.01% |
| MEDIUM | 30–57 | 34% | 87 | -0.43% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 172 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 214 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 31 loosening / 204 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 95–153 (38%, n=248) | 13–34 (28%, n=47) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 92–143 (39%, n=235) | 16–44 (27%, n=60) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M51 (749.60), currently completing Minor Wave 4 as a Regular Flat. | 767.50 | 758.79 | 783.87 | 75% | 35% | 52 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave B (or 2) correction nearing completion at 58.6% retracement. | 731.99 | 700.00 | 762.86 | 75% | 30% | 52 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 345.88 | 363.55 | 345.88 | 388.56 | 75% | 30% | 52 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Intermediate Wave (3) | 341.72 | 330.70 | 358.09 | 65% | 35% | 52 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Expanded Flat (EFC) | 226.76 | 243.37 | 186.84 | 75% | 45% | 52 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M60 (263.70) | 258.71 | 260.11 | 252.49 | 75% | 30% | 52 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Zigzag (Wave II or B) | 586.60 | 606.20 | 527.29 | 75% | 25% | 52 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave b of (v) | 746.85 | 711.68 | 771.27 | 75% | 30% | 52 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 491.22 | 532.16 | 518.79 | 562.50 | 85% | 15% | 52 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | BULLISH Impulse from 335.51 | 345.99 | 335.51 | 388.13 | 75% | 30% | 52 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 52–52 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.