🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-30 17:00:55 · run run_20260730_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
42–78 35% hit rate · n=120 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH31–5835%89+0.18%
MEDIUM11–2035%31-0.09%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 62 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 72 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 69 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM37–63 (37%, n=100)5–15 (25%, n=20)
Weekly/Monthly level33–54 (38%, n=87)9–24 (27%, n=33)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from M36 (729.10)734.94729.10750.7765%30%62
QQQcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Wave 5675.20661.14710.3275%30%62
TSLAcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish impulse from M28 (413.16)303.51413.16297.3880%40%62
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Wave 3328.94319.35347.7080%40%62
NVDAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from T138 (190.01)193.70190.01204.4075%20%62
AMZNcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish Impulse from 257.12239.97257.12223.8675%30%62
AMDcleanBULLISHMEDIUMPrimary Bullish Impulse469.56424.03561.8565%40%62
METAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from M25 (686.08)542.34599.97521.5575%20%62
MSFTcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 374.09439.51388.74466.3285%30%62
GOOGLcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Zigzag (A-B-C) from 359.68335.33342.50313.8875%30%62

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 62–62 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)