🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-10 17:00:55 · run run_20260710_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
27–35 44% hit rate · n=62 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH20–2643%46+0.45%
MEDIUM7–944%16+0.08%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 31 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 42 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 9 loosening / 40 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM24–29 (45%, n=53)3–6 (33%, n=9)
Weekly/Monthly level21–26 (45%, n=47)6–9 (40%, n=15)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from M29 (739.51)751.38750.43756.2265%35%48
QQQcleanBULLISHMEDIUMWave (iii) of Primary 3 or C Up724.34720.58737.6265%35%48
TSLAcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Wave C from M27 (390.51)404.07390.51426.6570%35%48
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse (Primary 5)312.69307.05330.0875%30%48
NVDAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from M19(189.80)204.68198.9680%35%48
AMZNcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 225.55243.31239.30262.9670%35%48
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHWave 5 UP542.97542.77584.7375%20%48
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 580.10620.45580.10792.1075%30%48
MSFTcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 349.20381.50374.09411.3365%35%48
GOOGLcleanBEARISHHIGHWave C DOWN360.55373.16345.0085%35%48

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 48–48 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)