Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 18–20 | 47% | 38 | +0.51% |
| MEDIUM | 5–7 | 42% | 12 | +0.15% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 28 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 35 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 7 loosening / 33 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 20–21 (49%, n=41) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 18–19 (49%, n=37) | 5–8 (38%, n=13) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave C DOWN | 748.85 | 749.34 | 742.92 | 65% | 40% | 45 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of Primary C Up | 708.01 | 702.81 | 722.25 | 75% | 35% | 45 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 401.88 | 389.30 | 414.84 | 65% | 40% | 45 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (ii) of Bullish Impulse | 298.62 | 273.75 | — | 85% | 15% | 45 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M19(189.80) | 195.47 | 189.80 | 209.86 | 75% | 30% | 45 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse | 244.26 | 242.70 | 249.86 | 65% | 35% | 45 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Minor Wave 5 of Primary 1 UP | 524.97 | 498.05 | 584.73 | 85% | 20% | 45 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 604.44 | 581.50 | — | 75% | 30% | 45 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 388.22 | 381.22 | 400.96 | 65% | 35% | 45 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (ii) of Minor 1 | 362.79 | 353.42 | 376.00 | 65% | 35% | 45 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 45–45 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.