🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-06-29 17:00:55 · run run_20260629_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
14–20 41% hit rate · n=34 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH12–1446%26+0.47%
MEDIUM2–625%8-0.40%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 15 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 22 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 5 loosening / 20 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM12–14 (46%, n=26)2–6 (25%, n=8)
Weekly/Monthly level11–14 (44%, n=25)3–6 (33%, n=9)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMWave V of (III) UP736.06726.86751.0265%35%61
QQQcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse718.85705.17733.1375%40%61
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from M21 (368.60)400.00378.55423.0075%30%61
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHWave III UP279.85275.25288.8185%25%61
NVDAcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish impulse from D41(213.99)199.81213.99184.5070%30%61
AMZNcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse238.49225.55250.3275%25%61
AMDcleanBULLISHHIGHWave (iii) UP524.35498.05559.2080%30%61
METAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 540.18560.61548.97575.9780%25%61
MSFTcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 349.20366.02351.64382.4875%35%61
GOOGLcleanBULLISHHIGHPrimary Wave 5 UP351.82335.84358.6680%30%61

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 61–61 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)