Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 32–60 | 35% | 92 | +0.13% |
| MEDIUM | 11–21 | 34% | 32 | -0.37% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 62 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 76 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 73 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 37–66 (36%, n=103) | 6–15 (29%, n=21) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 34–57 (37%, n=91) | 9–24 (27%, n=33) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 729.10 | 739.81 | 729.10 | 750.70 | 85% | 25% | 43 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Reversal | 685.88 | 661.14 | 700.76 | 75% | 30% | 43 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from M23 (432.86) | 315.28 | 413.16 | 247.54 | 85% | 20% | 43 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse (Primary Wave C) | 319.43 | 334.75 | 297.15 | 65% | 40% | 43 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M31 (190.01) | 198.26 | 190.01 | 213.87 | 75% | 30% | 43 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 226.16 | 268.00 | 226.16 | 277.91 | 85% | 20% | 43 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse (Wave i) | 473.27 | 424.03 | 527.54 | 75% | 35% | 43 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse from M25 (686.08) | 566.32 | 599.97 | 519.78 | 75% | 40% | 43 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 377.39 | 460.00 | 450.69 | 469.87 | 75% | 25% | 43 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 348.39 | 314.90 | — | 75% | 35% | 43 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 43–43 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.