Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 16–16 | 50% | 32 | +0.80% |
| MEDIUM | 3–7 | 30% | 10 | -0.05% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 18 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 28 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 7 loosening / 26 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 17–17 (50%, n=34) | 2–6 (25%, n=8) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 15–17 (47%, n=32) | 4–6 (40%, n=10) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (III) UP | 738.38 | 726.86 | 765.00 | 75% | 30% | 42 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (iii) of Primary A or 1 down | 731.91 | 745.45 | 702.81 | 65% | 40% | 42 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 420.05 | 407.83 | 459.76 | 75% | 35% | 42 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (i) of Bullish Impulse | 291.20 | 273.75 | 302.14 | 80% | 30% | 42 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from D42(189.80) | 197.23 | 193.45 | 207.79 | 75% | 30% | 42 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 225.55 | 240.49 | 235.17 | 250.22 | 60% | 40% | 42 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave b of (v) DOWN | 530.29 | 498.05 | 607.88 | 65% | 40% | 42 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 605.95 | 597.43 | 641.81 | 75% | 30% | 42 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 380.94 | 369.82 | 394.54 | 80% | 30% | 42 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (1) UP | 358.05 | 355.54 | 365.28 | 75% | 30% | 42 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 42–42 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.