Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 35–60 | 37% | 95 | +0.18% |
| MEDIUM | 12–21 | 36% | 33 | -0.32% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 63 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 80 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 76 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 39–66 (37%, n=105) | 8–15 (35%, n=23) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 38–57 (40%, n=95) | 9–24 (27%, n=33) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from D67 (729.10) | 750.70 | 729.10 | 768.02 | 75% | 30% | 44 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 661.14 (M33) | 685.88 | 661.14 | 710.26 | 65% | 40% | 44 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M23 | 338.21 | 413.16 | 184.07 | 80% | 20% | 44 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse | 302.56 | 310.70 | 294.39 | 65% | 35% | 44 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from 190.01; Wave (i) complete at 208.74. | 199.38 | 190.01 | — | 80% | 40% | 44 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 226.16 | 274.80 | 234.78 | 295.40 | 75% | 20% | 44 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 477.16 | 424.03 | 504.12 | 65% | 40% | 44 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from M28 (527.35) | 583.89 | 582.64 | 626.12 | 70% | 20% | 44 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 460.00 | 450.69 | — | 75% | 20% | 44 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 367.37 | 348.39 | 398.26 | 80% | 25% | 44 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 44–44 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.