Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 8–11 | 42% | 19 | +0.17% |
| MEDIUM | 2–5 | 29% | 7 | -0.45% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 12 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 20 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 2 loosening / 18 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 8–11 (42%, n=19) | 2–5 (29%, n=7) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 8–12 (40%, n=20) | 2–4 (33%, n=6) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave C UP | 731.28 | 726.86 | 745.42 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Primary Wave A | 712.01 | 715.55 | 685.61 | 80% | 20% | 60 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 378.55 | 368.60 | 395.17 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Wave V Bullish Impulse | 281.87 | 273.75 | 291.12 | 65% | 35% | 60 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from D41(213.99) | 202.63 | 214.00 | 177.07 | 65% | 40% | 60 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 225.55 | 230.34 | 227.84 | 235.44 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave iii of (iii) UP | 511.81 | 506.73 | 540.66 | 65% | 35% | 60 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave c of (iii) down | 553.00 | 556.85 | 491.22 | 65% | 35% | 60 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 370.72 | 349.20 | — | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave C of Primary Correction | 340.34 | 346.36 | 317.82 | 80% | 15% | 60 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 60–60 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.