Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 8–12 | 40% | 20 | +0.20% |
| MEDIUM | 2–6 | 25% | 8 | -0.40% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 14 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 21 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 4 loosening / 19 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 8–13 (38%, n=21) | 2–5 (29%, n=7) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 8–13 (38%, n=21) | 2–5 (29%, n=7) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of III UP | 731.28 | 726.86 | 745.42 | 75% | 20% | 60 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of Primary 3 | 704.30 | 702.81 | 718.49 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 378.55 | 368.60 | 395.17 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 281.83 | 279.41 | 288.84 | 75% | 25% | 60 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from D41(213.99) | 196.60 | 213.99 | 173.83 | 70% | 20% | 60 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate (1) UP | 227.85 | 225.55 | 239.77 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave (iii) of Primary 3 | 513.80 | 506.00 | 529.62 | 75% | 35% | 60 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 540.18 | 547.08 | 540.18 | 576.48 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (ii) of Bearish Impulse | 362.51 | 466.32 | 284.12 | 65% | 30% | 60 |
| GOOGL | INTEGRITY FAIL | NEUTRAL | LOW | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 50% | — | 60 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 60–60 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.