Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 37–61 | 38% | 98 | +0.19% |
| MEDIUM | 14–22 | 39% | 36 | -0.21% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 67 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 83 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 17 loosening / 79 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 42–67 (39%, n=109) | 9–16 (36%, n=25) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 41–58 (41%, n=99) | 10–25 (29%, n=35) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 767.70 | 761.89 | 773.88 | 65% | 35% | 47 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 661.14 | 708.50 | 661.14 | 728.54 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from M23 (432.86) | 323.90 | 413.16 | 207.18 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Wave (B) Correction | 309.92 | 344.57 | 319.14 | 70% | 40% | 47 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M31 (190.01) | 213.86 | 190.01 | 235.00 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse (Wave A) from 287.20 | 275.48 | 281.07 | 269.19 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Primary Bullish Impulse | 475.66 | 424.03 | 530.13 | 75% | 40% | 47 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Wave B from M25 (686.08) | 580.12 | 686.08 | 603.82 | 75% | 35% | 47 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 377.39 | 493.50 | 485.68 | 503.70 | 75% | 30% | 47 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 342.32 | 314.90 | 384.91 | 75% | 35% | 47 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 47–47 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.