Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 17–20 | 46% | 37 | +0.49% |
| MEDIUM | 4–7 | 36% | 11 | +0.04% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 19 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 30 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 7 loosening / 28 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 18–21 (46%, n=39) | 3–6 (33%, n=9) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 17–19 (47%, n=36) | 4–8 (33%, n=12) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Wave (ii) of III UP | 738.36 | 726.86 | 754.95 | 75% | 40% | 43 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Minute c of Minor C (Bearish) | 722.50 | 730.82 | 704.11 | 65% | 40% | 43 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish impulse from M21 (368.60) | 385.08 | 368.60 | 407.39 | 70% | 35% | 43 |
| AAPL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave B of (II) | 292.70 | 316.94 | 273.75 | 70% | 40% | 43 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from M19 | 195.42 | 189.80 | 207.73 | 75% | 40% | 43 |
| AMZN | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 225.55 | 241.12 | 235.17 | 259.40 | 75% | 30% | 43 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave (i) of larger degree bearish reversal completed at 506.00; currently in Wave (ii) UP. | 530.00 | 584.73 | 498.05 | 65% | 40% | 43 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from 628.28 | 598.70 | 628.28 | 550.85 | 75% | 40% | 43 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse | 382.78 | 349.20 | — | 85% | 30% | 43 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Intermediate Wave (1) UP | 353.09 | 335.84 | 364.52 | 65% | 40% | 43 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 43–43 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.