Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 1–1 | 50% | 2 | +0.47% |
| MEDIUM | 1–1 | 50% | 2 | +0.36% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 3 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 7 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 0 loosening / 6 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 2–2 (50%, n=4) | 0–0 (0%, n=0) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 2–2 (50%, n=4) | 0–0 (0%, n=0) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 2 Pullback (Zigzag) | 742.86 | 756.68 | 737.30 | 80% | 20% | 55 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 3 of (3) | 731.99 | 720.85 | 763.69 | 75% | 25% | 55 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish impulse from 418.50, with Wave iii completing at 384.70. | 403.52 | 411.79 | 380.15 | 65% | 45% | 55 |
| AAPL | INTEGRITY FAIL | NEUTRAL | LOW | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | — | 55 |
| NVDA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish reversal from D39(203.08) | 207.51 | 203.08 | 211.43 | 80% | 20% | 55 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave 2 (or B) UP | 246.05 | 242.44 | 233.59 | 65% | 35% | 55 |
| AMD | INTEGRITY FAIL | NEUTRAL | LOW | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | — | 55 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave C DOWN | 601.24 | 605.81 | 563.10 | 15% | 30% | 55 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave 5 down from 466.32 | 381.37 | 390.05 | — | 65% | 40% | 55 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave 1 down complete at 358.67; Wave 2 up developing | 370.04 | 376.00 | 346.36 | 85% | 35% | 55 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 55–55 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.