Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 28–52 | 35% | 80 | +0.21% |
| MEDIUM | 11–20 | 35% | 31 | -0.09% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 58 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 67 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 16 loosening / 64 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 35–60 (37%, n=95) | 4–12 (25%, n=16) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 31–51 (38%, n=82) | 8–21 (28%, n=29) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from M34 (735.21) | 738.52 | 735.21 | 749.96 | 65% | 45% | 60 |
| QQQ | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Impulse (Wave C) from 724.36 | 679.40 | 710.05 | 653.34 | 65% | 40% | 60 |
| TSLA | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish impulse from T117 (300.69) | 305.04 | 300.69 | 323.49 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Intermediate Wave (3) of Primary Wave 3 | 336.05 | 335.60 | 355.82 | 80% | 20% | 60 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from T123 | 202.69 | 211.91 | 189.80 | 75% | 20% | 60 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from 257.12 | 233.95 | 235.89 | 219.44 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| AMD | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Primary Bearish Impulse (Wave C) | 465.81 | 496.28 | 439.11 | 75% | 25% | 60 |
| META | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish Impulse from M25 (686.08) | 600.53 | 655.88 | 540.18 | 75% | 30% | 60 |
| MSFT | clean | BULLISH | MEDIUM | Bullish Impulse from 377.39 | 391.99 | 377.39 | 408.23 | 80% | 35% | 60 |
| GOOGL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 314.90 | 328.90 | 324.44 | 341.41 | 75% | 25% | 60 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 60–60 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.