Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels
against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after
5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit
rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n
counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.
| Confidence | W–L | Hit | n | Avg/signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 6–2 | 75% | 8 | +1.03% |
| MEDIUM | 2–3 | 40% | 5 | -0.25% |
Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 9 — excluded from the hit rate.
Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 13 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 0 loosening / 11 holds-or-tightens.
SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):
| Split | +coincident | −none |
|---|---|---|
| Boroden +SYM | 7–5 (58%, n=12) | 1–0 (100%, n=1) |
| Weekly/Monthly level | 6–5 (55%, n=11) | 2–0 (100%, n=2) |
| Ticker | Status | Trend | Conf | Primary count | Target | Invalidation | Dir. obj. | P(tgt) | Alt P | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave B | 739.61 | 750.18 | 721.73 | 70% | 30% | 57 |
| QQQ | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 685.62 | 720.30 | 685.62 | — | 85% | 30% | 57 |
| TSLA | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Bearish Zigzag Y | 392.14 | 414.75 | — | 75% | 25% | 57 |
| AAPL | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Wave 2 DOWN from D45(302.42) | 293.13 | 287.38 | 319.66 | 85% | 30% | 57 |
| NVDA | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Bearish impulse from D41(213.99) | 202.70 | 213.99 | 197.39 | 75% | 20% | 57 |
| AMZN | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Wave C | 237.02 | 245.73 | 225.00 | 80% | 20% | 57 |
| AMD | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Minor 2 completed as an Expanded Flat; Minor 3 initiating. | 518.51 | 438.28 | 537.27 | 75% | 25% | 57 |
| META | clean | BULLISH | HIGH | Bullish Impulse from 556.49 | 560.51 | 556.49 | 605.00 | 80% | 30% | 57 |
| MSFT | clean | BEARISH | MEDIUM | Wave c of (iii) of C | 376.12 | 377.22 | 366.23 | 65% | 40% | 57 |
| GOOGL | clean | BEARISH | HIGH | Primary Wave C | 349.12 | 349.28 | — | 40% | 35% | 57 |
Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 57–57 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).
Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.