🔭 HEW Scout — Shadow Tracking Record

EOD batch · 2026-07-28 17:00:55 · run run_20260728_170055 · ← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)
39–72 35% hit rate · n=111 resolved · paper / shadow first-passage record

Every tracked ticker's directional read is scored by FIRST PASSAGE of its own stamped levels against spot: target before invalidation = WIN, invalidation first = LOSS, unresolved after 5 sessions = SCRATCH. No capital is deployed. The hit rate by confidence bucket below is the credibility this experiment is trying to earn — the n counts are shown so a thin sample reads as thin.

ConfidenceW–LHitnAvg/signal
HIGH28–5235%80+0.21%
MEDIUM11–2035%31-0.09%

Revised (withdrawn before resolution): 58 — excluded from the hit rate.

Superseded (same-direction re-anchor): 67 — books no return, excluded from the hit rate. Goalpost discipline: 16 loosening / 64 holds-or-tightens.

SYM / higher-degree coincidence at open (record-only — never scores, sizes, or calibrates):

Split+coincident−none
Boroden +SYM35–60 (37%, n=95)4–12 (25%, n=16)
Weekly/Monthly level31–51 (38%, n=82)8–21 (28%, n=29)

Today’s leaderboard — 10/10 clean reads

TickerStatusTrendConfPrimary countTargetInvalidationDir. obj.P(tgt)Alt PSessions
SPYcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from M34 (735.21)738.52735.21749.9665%45%60
QQQcleanBEARISHMEDIUMBearish Impulse (Wave C) from 724.36679.40710.05653.3465%40%60
TSLAcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish impulse from T117 (300.69)305.04300.69323.4975%30%60
AAPLcleanBULLISHHIGHIntermediate Wave (3) of Primary Wave 3336.05335.60355.8280%20%60
NVDAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from T123202.69211.91189.8075%20%60
AMZNcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from 257.12233.95235.89219.4475%30%60
AMDcleanBEARISHHIGHPrimary Bearish Impulse (Wave C)465.81496.28439.1175%25%60
METAcleanBEARISHHIGHBearish Impulse from M25 (686.08)600.53655.88540.1875%30%60
MSFTcleanBULLISHMEDIUMBullish Impulse from 377.39391.99377.39408.2380%35%60
GOOGLcleanBULLISHHIGHBullish Impulse from 314.90328.90324.44341.4175%25%60

Data source: AlphaVantage 1m · realized coverage 60–60 sessions (130m base degree wants ~42).

Trend/confidence/counts are the Scout’s reading of the tape; targets, invalidations and P(target) are the falsifiable claims the scorecard above grades. “Alt P” is the alternate count’s relative probability vs the primary.

Disclaimer. This is a SHADOW / PAPER research record of an automated wave-reading experiment. It is NOT investment advice, NOT a solicitation, and NOT a live track record. Every result is a first-passage score of the Scout's own stamped levels against spot — no capital is deployed, no broker is touched. Sample sizes (n) are shown precisely so a thin record reads as thin. Past hypothetical reads do not predict future results.

← The Ghost Desk (Ouroboros live book)